Jets vs Titans — Week 16, 2007
The Jets took over trailing 10-6 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Jets 6, Titans 10. Titans won 10-6 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 16, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 25.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) 20-T.Jones up the middle to NYJ 18 for 2 yards (55-S.Tulloch, 92-A.Haynesworth).
- (4:03) 10-C.Pennington pass short right to 89-J.Cotchery to NYJ 24 for 6 yards (41-K.Herndon).
- (3:33) (No Huddle) 10-C.Pennington pass short right to 89-J.Cotchery to NYJ 37 for 13 yards (41-K.Herndon).
- (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass short right to 16-B.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 6 yards (37-C.Lowry).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 20-T.Jones up the middle to NYJ 49 for 6 yards (53-K.Bulluck, 97-T.Brown).
- (2:32) 10-C.Pennington pass short left to 20-T.Jones to TEN 49 for 2 yards (50-D.Thornton, 93-K.Vanden Bosch).
- (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass short left to 20-T.Jones to TEN 45 for 4 yards (31-C.Finnegan).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass incomplete short left to 86-C.Baker.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington sacked at NYJ 45 for -10 yards (97-T.Brown).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.21 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.06 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.03 pts |
| QB keep | -0.21 pts |
| Play action | -0.40 pts |
| Quick out | -0.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.62 pts |
| Deep post | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.95 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.15 pts |
| Outside run | -1.29 pts |
| Inside run | -1.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.12 pts |
| Spike it | -2.23 pts |
| End-around | -2.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.