Ravens vs Bills — Week 7, 2007
The Ravens took over trailing 19-14 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 14, Bills 19. Bills won 19-14 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 32, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.1% for Ravens. Our model starts at 24.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) 7-K.Boller pass short middle to 88-Q.Sypniewski to BAL 35 for 3 yards (52-J.DiGiorgio). Caught at BAL 35, crossing to right.
- (4:16) 23-W.McGahee left guard to BAL 35 for no gain (56-K.Ellison, 55-A.Crowell).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass incomplete short left to 87-D.Williams [93-A.Hargrove]. Underthrown, receiver along sideline at BAL 46. Thrown under pressure from A.Hargrove.
- (3:28) 4-S.Koch punts 61 yards to BUF 4, Center-70-M.Katula. 11-R.Parrish to BUF 14 for 10 yards (33-J.Green).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep post | -0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| End-around | -1.55 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.