Eagles vs Commanders — Week 10, 2007
The Eagles took over trailing 25-20 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 33, Commanders 25. Eagles won 33-25 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 4:09 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.5% for Eagles. Our model starts at 21.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) 36-B.Westbrook left end to PHI 37 for 2 yards (57-R.Godfrey).
- (3:29) 5-D.McNabb pass short middle to 36-B.Westbrook for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-D.McNabb pass to 89-M.Schobel is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.90 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Deep post | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.32 pts |
| End-around | -1.39 pts |
| Spike it | -2.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.