Patriots vs Ravens — Week 13, 2007
The Patriots took over trailing 24-20 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 27, Ravens 24. Patriots won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 27, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.0% for Patriots. Our model starts at 25.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Stallworth (22-S.Rolle).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 84-B.Watson to NE 50 for 23 yards (28-J.Winborne).
- (2:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 33-K.Faulk.
- (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-K.Faulk to BAL 41 for 9 yards (57-B.Scott).
- (2:22) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady up the middle to BAL 39 for 2 yards (57-B.Scott).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-B.Watson (28-J.Winborne).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Welker [50-A.Barnes].
- (1:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-K.Faulk ran ob at BAL 30 for 9 yards.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles up the middle to BAL 23 for 12 yards (52-R.Lewis). PENALTY on BAL-22-S.Rolle, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23.
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 33-K.Faulk up the middle to BAL 13 for 5 yards (92-H.Ngata).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Welker (52-R.Lewis).
- (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Welker.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.43 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.10 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.10 pts |
| QB keep | +0.97 pts |
| Play action | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.60 pts |
| Spike it | -2.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.