Lions vs Chiefs — Week 16, 2007
The Lions took over leading 22-20 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Lions 25, Chiefs 20. Lions won 25-20 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 32, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.4% for Lions. Our model starts at 70.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) 45-T.Duckett right tackle to DET 33 for 1 yard (93-D.Tyler).
- (3:47) 81-C.Johnson right end to DET 35 for 2 yards (91-T.Hali). Play was a reverse.
- (3:05) 8-J.Kitna pass incomplete short right to 81-C.Johnson.
- (3:00) 2-N.Harris punts 52 yards to KC 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 85-E.Drummond pushed ob at KC 26 for 13 yards (48-D.Muhlbach). PENALTY on KC-22-D.Patterson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at KC 17.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.44 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | +0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.08 pts |
| Quick out | -0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Curl route | -0.83 pts |
| Play action | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.29 pts |
| End-around | -3.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.83 pts |
| Deep post | -5.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.