Ravens vs 49ers — Week 5, 2007
The Ravens took over leading 9-7 with 2:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 9, 49ers 7. Ravens won 9-7 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 42, 2:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.7% for Ravens. Our model starts at 78.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:37) 23-W.McGahee left guard to BAL 48 for 6 yards (95-T.Banta-Cain).
- (2:32) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short left to 87-D.Williams (27-W.Harris).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 85-D.Mason to SF 34 for 18 yards (27-W.Harris). Caught at SF 48.
- (2:00) 23-W.McGahee left guard to SF 34 for no gain (50-D.Smith; 52-P.Willis).
- (1:47) 23-W.McGahee left end to SF 25 for 9 yards (32-M.Lewis).
- (1:00) 9-S.McNair up the middle to SF 24 for 1 yard (92-A.Franklin).
- (:17) 9-S.McNair kneels to SF 25 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Outside run | +0.32 pts |
| QB keep | +0.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.05 pts |
| Quick out | -0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Curl route | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Play action | -1.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.58 pts |
| End-around | -3.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -6.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.