Colts vs Jaguars — Week 13, 2007
The Colts took over leading 28-25 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Colts 28, Jaguars 25. Colts won 28-25 — the drive time expired.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 2:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.7% for Colts. Our model starts at 78.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to IND 36 for 16 yards (23-J.Fudge).
- (2:09) 29-J.Addai left tackle to IND 38 for 2 yards (98-J.Henderson, 92-R.Meier).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark to IND 45 for 7 yards (51-C.Ingram).
- (1:58) 29-J.Addai left tackle to IND 47 for 2 yards (51-C.Ingram, 29-B.Williams).
- (1:15) 18-P.Manning kneels to IND 46 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 18-P.Manning kneels to IND 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.08 pts |
| Quick out | -0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Curl route | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Play action | -1.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.59 pts |
| End-around | -3.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -6.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.73 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.