Steelers vs Jets — Week 11, 2007
The Steelers took over leading 16-13 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 16, Jets 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 41, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 79.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) 39-W.Parker left guard to PIT 43 for 2 yards (99-B.Thomas, 91-S.Pouha).
- (3:34) 39-W.Parker left tackle to PIT 49 for 6 yards (52-D.Harris, 27-A.Elam).
- (2:50) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 45 for -4 yards (sack split by 93-K.Coleman and 63-D.Robertson).
- (2:43) 9-D.Sepulveda punts 46 yards to NYJ 19, Center-60-G.Warren. 29-L.Washington to NYJ 24 for 5 yards (38-C.Davis). PENALTY on NYJ-27-A.Elam, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.86 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Outside run | +0.14 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Curl route | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -1.66 pts |
| End-around | -3.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.71 pts |
| Deep post | -6.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.86 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.