Patriots vs Eagles — Week 12, 2007
The Patriots took over leading 31-28 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 31, Eagles 28. Patriots won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.8% for Patriots. Our model starts at 75.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker to NE 23 for 3 yards (24-S.Brown).
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 84-B.Watson to NE 29 for 6 yards (96-O.Gaither).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-J.Gaffney to NE 40 for 16 yards (30-J.Reed, 20-B.Dawkins). NE 12-Brady now has 25,003 career passing yards, 3rd Patriot to reach that plateau (Bledsoe 29,657 & Grogan 26,886).
- (2:21) 39-L.Maroney left guard to NE 39 for -1 yards (97-B.Bunkley).
- (2:00) 39-L.Maroney right tackle to NE 41 for 2 yards (75-J.Thomas, 97-B.Bunkley).
- (1:15) 39-L.Maroney right end to NE 43 for 2 yards (98-M.Patterson).
- (:31) 6-C.Hanson punts 33 yards to PHI 24, Center-66-L.Paxton. 36-B.Westbrook to PHI 22 for -2 yards (38-K.Eckel). FUMBLES (38-K.Eckel), recovered by PHI-35-N.Graham at PHI 22.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.82 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.37 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | -0.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.19 pts |
| Quick out | -0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Curl route | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Play action | -1.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.58 pts |
| End-around | -3.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.19 pts |
| Deep post | -5.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.