Raiders vs Browns — Week 3, 2007
The Raiders took over leading 26-24 with 3:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 26, Browns 24. Raiders won 26-24 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 21, 3:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.5% for Raiders. Our model starts at 70.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:27) 34-L.Jordan up the middle to LV 26 for 5 yards (56-A.Peek; 58-D.Jackson).
- (3:17) 34-L.Jordan right end to LV 27 for 1 yard (54-A.Davis, 99-O.Roye).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-D.Culpepper pass deep left to 84-J.Porter to LV 42 for 20 yards (28-L.Bodden).
- (2:18) 34-L.Jordan right guard to LV 44 for 2 yards (58-D.Jackson, 99-O.Roye).
- (2:00) 34-L.Jordan right end to LV 44 for no gain (21-B.Pool).
- (1:54) 34-L.Jordan right tackle to CLE 49 for 7 yards (26-S.Jones, 58-D.Jackson).
- (1:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to CLE 9, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-30-S.Schweigert.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.24 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Outside run | +0.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.31 pts |
| Curl route | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Play action | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.01 pts |
| End-around | -3.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.55 pts |
| Deep post | -4.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.