Cowboys vs Panthers — Week 16, 2007
The Cowboys took over leading 20-13 with 2:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 20, Panthers 13. Cowboys won 20-13 — the drive time expired.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 12, 2:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 93.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:55) 24-M.Barber left guard to DAL 21 for 9 yards (35-D.Cooper).
- (2:12) 24-M.Barber right guard to DAL 23 for 2 yards (53-N.Diggs).
- (2:00) 24-M.Barber right guard to DAL 25 for 2 yards (52-J.Beason).
- (1:55) 24-M.Barber right end to DAL 36 for 11 yards (31-R.Marshall).
- (1:42) 9-T.Romo kneels to DAL 35 for -1 yards.
- (1:00) 9-T.Romo kneels to DAL 34 for -1 yards.
- (:19) 9-T.Romo kneels to DAL 33 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.05 pts |
| Quick out | -1.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| QB keep | -1.74 pts |
| Play action | -3.03 pts |
| Curl route | -3.37 pts |
| End-around | -5.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.32 pts |
| Deep post | -8.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.14 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.