Browns vs Bengals — Week 2, 2007
The Browns took over leading 51-45 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Browns 51, Bengals 45. Browns won 51-45 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 34, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.4% for Browns. Our model starts at 90.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to CLE 36 for 2 yards (97-J.Thornton).
- (3:27) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short right to 47-L.Vickers.
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 17-B.Edwards to CLE 44 for 8 yards (58-C.Miller, 28-D.Jackson). CLE-17-B.Edwards was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- (3:11) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to CLE 45 for 1 yard (90-J.Smith).
- (2:28) 31-J.Lewis right guard to 50 for 5 yards (91-R.Geathers).
- (2:00) 31-J.Lewis right guard to CIN 49 for 1 yard (90-J.Smith, 59-L.Johnson).
- (1:13) 15-D.Zastudil punts 45 yards to CIN 9, Center-64-R.Pontbriand, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.95 pts |
| QB keep | -1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.45 pts |
| Curl route | -2.69 pts |
| End-around | -4.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.80 pts |
| Deep post | -8.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.