Chargers vs Colts — Week 10, 2007
The Chargers took over leading 23-21 with 1:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 23, Colts 21. Chargers won 23-21 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 20, 1:31 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.4% for Chargers. Our model starts at 71.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:31) 41-L.Neal left end to LAC 25 for 5 yards (26-K.Hayden).
- (1:22) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle to LAC 22 for -3 yards (98-R.Mathis).
- (1:17) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle to LAC 26 for 4 yards (99-E.Johnson).
- (:35) 5-M.Scifres punts 41 yards to IND 33, Center-50-D.Binn, downed by LAC.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.17 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Outside run | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Curl route | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Play action | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.59 pts |
| End-around | -3.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.12 pts |
| Deep post | -4.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.