Giants vs Eagles — Week 14, 2007
The Giants took over leading 16-13 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 44, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 16, Eagles 13. Giants won 16-13 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 44, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 86.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) 27-B.Jacobs right tackle to NYG 46 for 2 yards (26-L.Sheppard).
- (1:52) 27-B.Jacobs right end to NYG 49 for 3 yards (96-O.Gaither).
- (1:47) 27-B.Jacobs right end to PHI 47 for 4 yards (98-M.Patterson).
- (1:03) 18-J.Feagles punts 44 yards to PHI 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 36-B.Westbrook ran ob at PHI 11 for 8 yards (30-C.Dahl).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| QB keep | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.46 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.83 pts |
| Curl route | -1.88 pts |
| End-around | -4.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.08 pts |
| Deep post | -7.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.