Giants vs Commanders — Week 3, 2007
The Giants took over leading 24-17 with 2:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 24, Commanders 17. Giants won 24-17 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 12, 2:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 93.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:50) 34-D.Ward left end to NYG 12 for no gain (96-C.Griffin).
- (2:44) 34-D.Ward left end to NYG 11 for -1 yards (94-A.Montgomery).
- (2:39) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-D.Ward pushed ob at NYG 21 for 10 yards (53-M.Washington).
- (2:33) 18-J.Feagles punts 41 yards to WAS 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 82-A.Randle El to NYG 35 for 27 yards (85-D.Tyree, 97-M.Kiwanuka).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.05 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| QB keep | -1.74 pts |
| Play action | -3.04 pts |
| Curl route | -3.38 pts |
| End-around | -5.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.33 pts |
| Deep post | -8.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.