Lions vs Vikings — Week 2, 2007
The Lions took over tied at 17 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Lions 17, Vikings 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 3:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.5% for Lions. Our model starts at 53.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-J.Kitna pass short middle to 29-B.Calhoun to DET 25 for 5 yards (26-A.Winfield).
- (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Kitna pass deep right to 81-C.Johnson to DET 45 for 20 yards (56-E.Henderson).
- (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Kitna pass short left to 11-R.Williams to MIN 44 for 11 yards (23-C.Griffin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Kitna pass short right to 87-M.Furrey to MIN 36 for 8 yards (26-A.Winfield).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 8-J.Kitna pass incomplete short right to 11-R.Williams (31-M.McCauley).
- (1:21) 81-C.Johnson right end to MIN 34 for 7 yards (31-M.McCauley; 52-C.Greenway). The Replay Assistant challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld.
- (1:08) 8-J.Kitna pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Williams (91-R.Edwards).
- (1:05) 8-J.Kitna scrambles left end to MIN 30 for 9 yards (93-K.Williams).
- (:55) 29-B.Calhoun right tackle to MIN 30 for no gain (51-B.Leber).
- (:50) 4-J.Hanson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.30 pts |
| QB keep | +1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Curl route | +0.94 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.84 pts |
| Deep post | -2.25 pts |
| End-around | -2.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.