Seahawks vs Panthers — Week 15, 2007
The Seahawks took over trailing 6-3 with 2:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 10, Panthers 13. Panthers won 13-10 — the drive turnover.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 15, 2:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.6% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 29.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:55) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep left to 87-B.Obomanu ran ob at SEA 33 for 18 yards (43-C.Harris).
- (2:49) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at SEA 25 for -8 yards (77-K.Jenkins).
- (2:16) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 84-B.Engram to SEA 37 for 12 yards (43-C.Harris).
- (2:00) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 83-D.Branch pushed ob at SEA 49 for 12 yards (29-P.Dendy).
- (1:55) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 84-B.Engram to CAR 43 for 8 yards (21-K.Lucas).
- (1:44) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at SEA 49 for -8 yards (58-T.Davis). FUMBLES (58-T.Davis), RECOVERED by CAR-31-R.Marshall at SEA 40. 31-R.Marshall to SEA 40 for no gain (20-M.Morris).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.36 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.15 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.39 pts |
| Deep post | -0.40 pts |
| Play action | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Outside run | -1.73 pts |
| Inside run | -2.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.52 pts |
| End-around | -2.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.