49ers vs Cardinals — Week 12, 2007
The 49ers took over trailing 28-24 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 31, Cardinals 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.4% for 49ers. Our model starts at 27.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) 12-T.Dilfer pass short left to 21-F.Gore to SF 40 for 10 yards (54-G.Hayes).
- (3:56) 21-F.Gore left tackle to SF 46 for 6 yards (97-C.Pace).
- (3:17) 12-T.Dilfer pass short right to 82-D.Jackson to ARI 47 for 7 yards (54-G.Hayes, 58-K.Dansby).
- (2:35) 12-T.Dilfer pass short middle to 21-F.Gore to ARI 40 for 7 yards (97-C.Pace).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Dilfer pass short right to 46-D.Walker to ARI 35 for 5 yards (35-O.Celestin).
- (1:25) 21-F.Gore right tackle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep post | -0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| End-around | -1.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.98 pts |
| Spike it | -2.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.