Browns vs Steelers — Week 10, 2007
The Browns took over trailing 31-28 with 3:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 28, Steelers 31. Steelers won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.3% for Browns. Our model starts at 29.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to 17-B.Edwards. Coverage by #51 Farrior
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete deep right to 17-B.Edwards. Pressure by #51 Farrior, Coverage by #24 Taylor
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short left to 84-J.Jurevicius. Coverage by #43 Polamalu
- (2:54) (Punt formation) 15-D.Zastudil punts 64 yards to PIT 11, Center-64-R.Pontbriand, downed by CLE-64-R.Pontbriand.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.27 pts |
| QB keep | +1.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.71 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.58 pts |
| End-around | -1.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.83 pts |
| Spike it | -2.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.