49ers vs Cardinals — Week 1, 2007
The 49ers took over trailing 17-13 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Cardinals 17. 49ers won 20-17 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 14, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.2% for 49ers. Our model starts at 21.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 83-A.Battle to SF 24 for 10 yards (42-T.Holt). Caught at SF 20.
- (2:25) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 82-D.Jackson pushed ob at SF 30 for 6 yards (21-A.Rolle; 26-R.Hood). Caught at SF 29.
- (2:15) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 82-D.Jackson to SF 46 for 16 yards (25-E.Green).
- (2:00) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 83-A.Battle to 50 for 4 yards (24-A.Wilson; 58-K.Dansby). PENALTY on ARI-58-K.Dansby, Face Mask (5 Yards), 5 yards, enforced at 50. Caught at 50.
- (1:52) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 21-F.Gore.
- (1:45) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 82-D.Jackson (25-E.Green).
- (1:37) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 83-A.Battle (25-E.Green).
- (1:34) 11-A.Smith scrambles left end ran ob at ARI 20 for 25 yards (47-A.Francisco).
- (1:23) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 44-M.Norris to ARI 18 for 2 yards (58-K.Dansby).
- (:43) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short right to 83-A.Battle.
- (:32) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 83-A.Battle to ARI 1 for 22 yards (42-T.Holt). FUMBLES (42-T.Holt), recovered by SF-82-D.Jackson at ARI 1. Ball recovered in end zone, by rule ball spotted at the point of the fumble. Caught at ARI 4.
- (:26) 83-A.Battle left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.16 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.05 pts |
| Deep post | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.33 pts |
| Play action | -0.50 pts |
| QB keep | -0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.83 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.98 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.71 pts |
| Outside run | -1.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.82 pts |
| Spike it | -1.99 pts |
| Inside run | -2.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.23 pts |
| End-around | -2.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.