Jets vs Browns — Week 14, 2007
The Jets took over trailing 17-12 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Jets 18, Browns 24. Browns won 24-18 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 43, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 25.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) 11-K.Clemens pass deep left to 89-J.Cotchery ran ob at CLE 31 for 26 yards (39-D.Holly).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass incomplete deep left to 87-L.Coles.
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 20-T.Jones left guard to CLE 20 for 11 yards (22-B.McDonald, 51-C.Thompson).
- (2:09) 20-T.Jones right tackle to CLE 20 for no gain (98-Roba.Smith).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Cotchery (28-L.Bodden).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-K.Clemens pass incomplete short left to 29-L.Washington [95-K.Wimbley].
- (1:48) 1-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Deep post | +0.76 pts |
| Play action | +0.76 pts |
| Quick out | +0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.26 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| End-around | -1.62 pts |
| Spike it | -2.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.