Rams vs Seahawks — Week 12, 2007
The Rams took over trailing 24-19 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 19, Seahawks 24. Seahawks won 24-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Rams ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 42, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 23.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 12-G.Frerotte pass to 80-I.Bruce ran ob at SEA 48 for 10 yards (23-M.Trufant).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 12-G.Frerotte pass short left to 81-T.Holt to SEA 39 for 9 yards (27-J.Babineaux).
- (2:05) 39-S.Jackson up the middle to SEA 14 for 1 yard (95-E.Wyms).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-G.Frerotte pass short middle to 80-I.Bruce to SEA 6 for 8 yards (27-J.Babineaux).
- (1:32) 12-G.Frerotte up the middle to SEA 4 for 2 yards (93-C.Terrill). Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld.
- (1:03) 12-G.Frerotte pass incomplete short left to 80-I.Bruce.
- (:54) 12-G.Frerotte pass short right to 83-D.Bennett to SEA 2 for 2 yards (27-J.Babineaux).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 39-S.Jackson right guard to SEA 1 for 1 yard (56-L.Hill, 25-B.Russell).
- (:30) 12-G.Frerotte FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 5, and recovers at SEA 5. 12-G.Frerotte to SEA 5 for no gain (55-D.Tapp).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.07 pts |
| Deep post | +0.95 pts |
| Play action | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| End-around | -1.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.