Eagles vs Cowboys — Week 15, 2007
The Eagles took over leading 10-6 with 2:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 10, Cowboys 6. Eagles won 10-6 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 45, 2:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 89.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:50) 36-B.Westbrook up the middle to PHI 46 for 1 yard (51-A.Ayodele).
- (2:45) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete short right to 36-B.Westbrook [97-J.Hatcher]. Pass thrown in flat.
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass deep middle to 87-B.Celek to DAL 25 for 29 yards (29-K.Davis).
- (2:19) 36-B.Westbrook right tackle to DAL 1 for 24 yards (26-K.Hamlin).
- (2:00) 5-D.McNabb kneels to DAL 2 for -1 yards.
- (1:15) 5-D.McNabb kneels to DAL 3 for -1 yards.
- (:30) 5-D.McNabb kneels to DAL 4 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| QB keep | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.20 pts |
| Curl route | -2.35 pts |
| End-around | -4.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.50 pts |
| Deep post | -7.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.