Titans vs Raiders — Week 8, 2007
The Titans took over leading 13-9 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Titans 13, Raiders 9. Titans won 13-9 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 9, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 84.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) 25-L.White right guard to TEN 11 for 2 yards (98-J.Richardson, 94-J.Alston).
- (2:29) 10-V.Young FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 11, and recovers at TEN 10. 10-V.Young to TEN 10 for no gain (24-M.Huff).
- (2:26) 25-L.White up the middle to TEN 12 for 2 yards (53-T.Howard).
- (2:20) (Punt formation) 15-C.Hentrich punts 41 yards to LV 47, Center-58-K.Amato, fair catch by 15-J.Higgins.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.85 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.88 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.00 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.30 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.79 pts |
| Play action | -2.95 pts |
| Curl route | -3.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.98 pts |
| End-around | -5.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.75 pts |
| Deep post | -7.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.