Cowboys vs Commanders — Week 11, 2007
The Cowboys took over leading 28-23 with 3:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 28, Commanders 23. Cowboys won 28-23 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 19, 3:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 85.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:41) 9-T.Romo pass incomplete short left to 81-T.Owens. Pass incomplete sideline at the Dallas 29.
- (3:36) 21-J.Jones up the middle to DAL 17 for -2 yards (94-A.Montgomery).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo sacked at DAL 11 for -6 yards (93-P.Daniels). Adams of Dallas was shaken up on the play.
- (3:06) (Punt formation) 1-M.McBriar punts 49 yards to WAS 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 82-A.Randle El to DAL 40 for 20 yards (29-K.Davis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.25 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -0.76 pts |
| QB keep | -0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -2.14 pts |
| Curl route | -2.24 pts |
| End-around | -4.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.33 pts |
| Deep post | -7.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.