Bills vs Bengals — Week 9, 2007
The Bills took over leading 26-21 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Bills 33, Bengals 21. Bills won 33-21 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 28, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 85.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) 23-M.Lynch right tackle to BUF 32 for 4 yards (40-M.Williams, 90-J.Smith).
- (3:23) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to BUF 31 for -1 yards (59-L.Johnson).
- (3:20) 7-J.Losman pass short middle to 83-L.Evans to BUF 44 for 13 yards (24-D.O'Neal). Post pattern, caught at BUF 40, crossing to middle from right.
- (2:33) 23-M.Lynch right guard for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Lynch broke tackles at BUF 45 before turning up sideline. D.O'Neal injured on play, assisted off.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | -0.00 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.19 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| QB keep | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.09 pts |
| Curl route | -2.19 pts |
| End-around | -4.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.29 pts |
| Deep post | -7.51 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.