Cowboys vs Giants — Week 1, 2007
The Cowboys took over leading 38-35 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 45, Giants 35. Cowboys won 45-35 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.7% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 81.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) 21-J.Jones up the middle to DAL 49 for 3 yards (92-M.Strahan).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 21-J.Jones right end to DAL 49 for 5 yards (37-J.Butler).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short middle to 17-S.Hurd for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.79 pts |
| Outside run | +0.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.38 pts |
| Quick out | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Curl route | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -1.68 pts |
| End-around | -3.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.76 pts |
| Deep post | -6.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.