Steelers vs Jaguars — Week 15, 2007
The Steelers took over trailing 29-22 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 22, Jaguars 29. Jaguars won 29-22 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Steelers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 41, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.1% for Steelers. Our model starts at 10.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 85-N.Washington (26-S.Knight).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 83-H.Miller.
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles right end to JAX 48 for 11 yards (56-J.Durant).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 44-N.Davenport to JAX 45 for 3 yards (56-J.Durant).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 10-S.Holmes.
- (:58) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Wilson. COVERAGE BY #52 SMITH
- (:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 83-H.Miller to JAX 39 for 6 yards (21-T.Cousin, 27-R.Mathis). The Replay Assistant challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.18 pts |
| Curl route | +1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| End-around | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Spike it | -1.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.