Cowboys vs Lions — Week 14, 2007
The Cowboys took over trailing 27-21 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 28, Lions 27. Cowboys won 28-27 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:15 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.3% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 9.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 24-M.Barber to DAL 23 for 6 yards (23-K.Smith).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Hurd [95-J.DeVries].
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 82-J.Witten to DAL 36 for 13 yards (24-G.Blue).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 82-J.Witten ran ob at DAL 40 for 4 yards (33-D.Edwards).
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Owens.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo sacked at DAL 40 for 0 yards (95-J.DeVries). FUMBLES (95-J.DeVries), touched at DAL 44, recovered by DAL-63-K.Kosier at DAL 40. 63-K.Kosier to DAL 40 for no gain (21-T.Fisher).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 24-M.Barber to DET 47 for 13 yards (23-K.Smith; 24-G.Blue).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 82-J.Witten pushed ob at DET 36 for 6 yards (33-D.Edwards; 93-C.Smith).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass deep right to 17-S.Hurd pushed ob at DET 20 for 16 yards (33-D.Edwards). The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.
- (:26) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 24-M.Barber pushed ob at DET 16 for 4 yards (33-D.Edwards).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass deep middle to 82-J.Witten for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.66 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.66 pts |
| Curl route | +0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.07 pts |
| QB keep | +0.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.00 pts |
| Quick out | -0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.97 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| End-around | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.