Cardinals vs Buccaneers — Week 9, 2007
The Cardinals took over trailing 17-10 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 10, Buccaneers 17. Buccaneers won 17-10 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 11.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass incomplete short left to 85-J.Urban [91-G.White].
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass incomplete deep middle to 85-J.Urban.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 13-K.Warner pass incomplete short middle to 80-Bry.Johnson (59-C.June).
- (3:13) (Punt formation) 5-M.Barr punts 40 yards to TB 34, Center-48-N.Hodel, fair catch by 19-I.Hilliard.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Deep post | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| End-around | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -1.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.