Browns vs Cardinals — Week 13, 2007
The Browns took over trailing 27-21 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Browns 21, Cardinals 27. Cardinals won 27-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 18, 1:48 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 8.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to 17-B.Edwards.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 29-J.Wright to CLE 28 for 10 yards (58-K.Dansby).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 80-K.Winslow to CLE 36 for 8 yards (58-K.Dansby).
- (:55) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 84-J.Jurevicius to ARI 47 for 17 yards (42-T.Holt).
- (:42) 3-D.Anderson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:41) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson scrambles left guard to ARI 37 for 10 yards (90-D.Dockett, 97-C.Pace).
- (:22) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short left to 86-T.Carter.
- (:20) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete deep right to 17-B.Edwards (26-R.Hood).
- (:15) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete deep middle to 84-J.Jurevicius (35-O.Celestin).
- (:06) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete deep left to 80-K.Winslow. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.82 pts |
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.19 pts |
| QB keep | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Quick out | +0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.85 pts |
| Spike it | -0.95 pts |
| End-around | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.