Eagles vs Commanders — Week 2, 2007
The Eagles took over trailing 20-12 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 12, Commanders 20. Commanders won 20-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 20, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 9.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) 5-D.McNabb pass short right to 38-T.Tapeh to PHI 29 for 9 yards (94-A.Montgomery).
- (4:19) (No Huddle) 36-B.Westbrook up the middle to PHI 34 for 5 yards (59-L.Fletcher).
- (3:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass deep right to 81-J.Avant pushed ob at WAS 49 for 17 yards (38-D.Macklin).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass short middle to 36-B.Westbrook to WAS 41 for 8 yards (52-R.McIntosh).
- (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete deep left to 83-G.Lewis.
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 36-B.Westbrook up the middle to WAS 44 for -3 yards (30-L.Landry).
- (2:58) 5-D.McNabb pass deep left to 86-R.Brown to WAS 25 for 19 yards (22-C.Rogers).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass short right to 89-M.Schobel to WAS 13 for 12 yards (21-S.Taylor).
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete short left to 86-R.Brown [21-S.Taylor].
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass short left to 80-K.Curtis to WAS 9 for 4 yards (22-C.Rogers).
- (1:13) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete short right to 80-K.Curtis.
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete short middle to 80-K.Curtis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.38 pts |
| Deep post | +0.33 pts |
| QB keep | +0.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.18 pts |
| Quick out | +0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.53 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.86 pts |
| End-around | -0.86 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.