Packers vs Bears — Week 5, 2007
The Packers took over trailing 27-20 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 20, Bears 27. Bears won 27-20 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 27, 1:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 7.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 80-D.Driver to GB 35 for 8 yards (54-B.Urlacher).
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 86-D.Lee to GB 43 for 8 yards (54-B.Urlacher).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 86-D.Lee to CHI 49 for 8 yards (55-L.Briggs).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Driver.
- (:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 89-J.Jones to CHI 41 for 8 yards (24-R.Manning).
- (:18) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 34-V.Morency to CHI 32 for 9 yards (24-R.Manning).
- (:13) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Jones.
- (:08) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep left intended for 80-D.Driver INTERCEPTED by 36-B.McGowan at CHI -9. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.92 pts |
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.49 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| End-around | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Spike it | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.