49ers vs Bengals — Week 15, 2007
The 49ers took over leading 20-13 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Bengals 13. 49ers won 20-13 — the drive time expired.
49ers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 24, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.2% for 49ers. Our model starts at 95.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) 21-F.Gore up the middle to SF 27 for 3 yards (94-D.Peko).
- (2:10) 21-F.Gore right end to SF 30 for 3 yards (28-D.Jackson).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 21-F.Gore right guard to SF 35 for 10 yards (41-C.Ndukwe; 91-R.Geathers).
- (1:59) 13-S.Hill kneels to SF 34 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 13-S.Hill kneels to SF 33 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 13-S.Hill kneels to SF 32 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.99 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.85 pts |
| Curl route | -3.20 pts |
| End-around | -5.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.29 pts |
| Deep post | -9.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.17 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.