Bengals vs Jets — Week 7, 2007
The Bengals took over leading 31-23 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 38, Jets 31. Bengals won 38-31 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 37, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.2% for Bengals. Our model starts at 93.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) 33-K.Watson right tackle to CIN 33 for -4 yards (25-K.Rhodes).
- (3:41) 33-K.Watson left tackle to CIN 45 for 12 yards (26-E.Coleman).
- (3:06) 33-K.Watson left end to NYJ 49 for 6 yards (92-S.Ellis).
- (2:26) 27-D.Dorsey right guard to CIN 49 for -2 yards (98-E.Hicks).
- (2:14) 27-D.Dorsey left tackle to NYJ 46 for 5 yards (52-D.Harris).
- (2:00) 33-K.Watson right tackle to NYJ 44 for 2 yards (26-E.Coleman).
- (1:51) 19-K.Larson punts 32 yards to NYJ 12, Center-48-B.St. Louis, fair catch by 29-L.Washington.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.19 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.83 pts |
| Curl route | -3.18 pts |
| End-around | -5.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.23 pts |
| Deep post | -8.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.05 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.