Packers vs Vikings — Week 4, 2007
The Packers took over leading 23-16 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at the Vikings 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Packers 23, Vikings 16. Packers won 23-16 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Vikings territory, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 97.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) 25-R.Grant up the middle to MIN 41 for 2 yards (42-D.Sharper, 94-P.Williams).
- (1:50) 4-B.Favre FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 43, RECOVERED by MIN-52-C.Greenway at MIN 46.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.58 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.93 pts |
| Quick out | -1.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.29 pts |
| QB keep | -1.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -3.16 pts |
| Curl route | -3.59 pts |
| End-around | -5.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.63 pts |
| Deep post | -9.51 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.