Browns vs Rams — Week 8, 2007
The Browns took over leading 27-20 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Browns 27, Rams 20. Browns won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 16, 1:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 95.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to CLE 16 for no gain (95-C.Ryan).
- (1:47) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 82-S.Heiden to CLE 24 for 8 yards (51-W.Witherspoon).
- (1:42) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short right to 17-B.Edwards.
- (1:37) 15-D.Zastudil punts 42 yards to LA 34, Center-64-R.Pontbriand. 89-D.Looker to LA 40 for 6 yards (64-R.Pontbriand). PENALTY on LA, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.06 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.86 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.56 pts |
| QB keep | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -2.97 pts |
| Curl route | -3.33 pts |
| End-around | -5.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.37 pts |
| Deep post | -9.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.