Cardinals vs Bengals — Week 11, 2007
The Cardinals took over leading 35-27 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 35, Bengals 27. Cardinals won 35-27 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 34, 2:58 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.0% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 95.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) 32-E.James left tackle to ARI 38 for 4 yards (91-R.Geathers).
- (2:14) 32-E.James left guard to ARI 39 for 1 yard (91-R.Geathers; 56-A.Schlegel).
- (2:10) 13-K.Warner pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Pope.
- (2:07) 5-M.Barr punts 34 yards to CIN 27, Center-48-N.Hodel. 83-A.Chatman to CIN 32 for 5 yards (52-M.Beisel).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.99 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.94 pts |
| Curl route | -3.32 pts |
| End-around | -5.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.38 pts |
| Deep post | -9.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.