Saints vs Falcons — Week 7, 2007
The Saints took over leading 22-16 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Saints 22, Falcons 16. Saints won 22-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Saints ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 10, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.2% for Saints. Our model starts at 92.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) 25-R.Bush right guard to NO 14 for 4 yards (56-K.Brooking).
- (1:44) 25-R.Bush right end to NO 21 for 7 yards (55-J.Abraham).
- (1:36) 25-R.Bush right guard to NO 22 for 1 yard (98-J.Anderson).
- (1:31) 25-R.Bush left tackle to NO 24 for 2 yards (56-K.Brooking).
- (:46) 25-R.Bush right guard to NO 26 for 2 yards (90-G.Jackson).
- (:01) 9-D.Brees kneels to NO 20 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.18 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Play action | -3.08 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.30 pts |
| Deep post | -8.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.