Ravens vs Dolphins — Week 15, 2007
The Ravens took over trailing 16-13 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 16, Dolphins 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 40, 1:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.2% for Ravens. Our model starts at 33.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) 10-T.Smith pass short right to 89-M.Clayton to MIA 47 for 13 yards (21-A.Goodman).
- (1:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-T.Smith pass short right to 89-M.Clayton to MIA 32 for 15 yards (32-J.Allen).
- (1:29) 23-W.McGahee right tackle to MIA 29 for 3 yards (25-W.Allen).
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-T.Smith pass short right to 88-Q.Sypniewski to MIA 21 for 8 yards (25-W.Allen).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 10-T.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 81-D.Darling.
- (:49) 10-T.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Clayton (25-W.Allen).
- (:42) 23-W.McGahee right guard to MIA 10 for 11 yards (32-J.Allen).
- (:25) 10-T.Smith spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:23) 10-T.Smith pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Clayton.
- (:17) (Shotgun) 10-T.Smith pass short left to 81-D.Darling ran ob at MIA 1 for 9 yards.
- (:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Stover 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-70-M.Katula, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.17 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.70 pts |
| QB keep | +1.54 pts |
| Play action | +1.10 pts |
| Quick out | +0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.73 pts |
| Deep post | +0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.72 pts |
| End-around | -1.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.