Broncos vs Packers — Week 8, 2007
The Broncos took over trailing 13-10 with 2:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 13, Packers 13. Tied 13-13 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 7, 2:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.6% for Broncos. Our model starts at 27.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) 35-S.Young left tackle to DEN 24 for no gain (36-N.Collins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 17-G.Martinez (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-B.Stokley to DEN 32 for 8 yards (21-C.Woodson).
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-B.Stokley pushed ob at DEN 39 for 7 yards (31-A.Harris).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 14-B.Stokley [74-A.Kampman].
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 15-B.Marshall to GB 26 for 35 yards (36-N.Collins; 24-J.Bush). Penalty on GB-21-C.Woodson, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 15-B.Marshall to GB 13 for 13 yards (50-A.Hawk).
- (:38) 35-S.Young right tackle to GB 4 for 9 yards (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short left to 15-B.Marshall.
- (:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler up the middle to GB 4 for no gain (79-R.Pickett).
- (:03) 1-J.Elam 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.15 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Deep post | -1.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.54 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Curl route | -1.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.10 pts |
| Play action | -2.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.27 pts |
| Outside run | -2.29 pts |
| Inside run | -2.30 pts |
| Spike it | -2.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.47 pts |
| End-around | -3.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.