Bears vs Eagles — Week 7, 2007
The Bears took over trailing 16-12 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 1 timeout in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Bears 19, Eagles 16. Bears won 19-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.2% for Bears. Our model starts at 30.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) 14-B.Griese pass incomplete deep middle to 82-G.Olsen.
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 14-B.Griese pass incomplete deep middle to 80-B.Berrian (21-W.James).
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-B.Griese sacked at CHI 22 for -8 yards (58-T.Cole).
- (4:11) 4-B.Maynard punts 42 yards to PHI 36, Center-65-P.Mannelly. 25-R.Mahe to PHI 42 for 6 yards (21-C.Graham).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Deep post | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| End-around | -1.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.