Bears vs Raiders — Week 10, 2007
The Bears took over trailing 6-3 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Bears 17, Raiders 6. Bears won 17-6 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 35.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) 32-C.Benson right end to CHI 30 for no gain (55-R.Thomas).
- (3:28) 8-R.Grossman pass short middle to 32-C.Benson pushed ob at CHI 41 for 11 yards (53-T.Howard).
- (3:19) 8-R.Grossman pass deep left to 80-B.Berrian for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.99 pts |
| Quick out | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Deep post | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.71 pts |
| Spike it | -2.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.