Seahawks vs Browns — Week 9, 2007
The Seahawks took over trailing 30-27 with 2:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 30, Browns 33. Browns won 33-30 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 29, 2:07 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 28.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:07) 8-M.Hasselbeck to SEA 40 for 11 yards (95-K.Wimbley).
- (2:00) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 81-N.Burleson.
- (1:54) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 84-B.Engram ran ob at SEA 44 for 4 yards (39-D.Holly).
- (1:49) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 84-B.Engram to 50 for 6 yards (39-D.Holly).
- (1:28) (No Huddle) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to 85-W.Heller (94-L.Williams).
- (1:21) (No Huddle) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep right to 18-D.Hackett to CLE 35 for 15 yards.
- (:57) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 18-D.Hackett to CLE 31 for 4 yards (24-E.Wright).
- (:54) 20-M.Morris to CLE 27 for 4 yards (28-L.Bodden).
- (:32) (No Huddle) 20-M.Morris to CLE 15 for 12 yards (26-S.Jones).
- (:24) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete.
- (:18) 20-M.Morris right end to CLE 4 for 11 yards (21-B.Pool).
- (:14) 8-M.Hasselbeck spiked the ball to stop the clock.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.03 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.52 pts |
| QB keep | +1.37 pts |
| Play action | +1.02 pts |
| Deep post | +0.94 pts |
| Quick out | +0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.18 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.