Ravens vs Bengals — Week 1, 2007
The Ravens took over trailing 27-20 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at the Bengals 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 20, Bengals 27. Bengals won 27-20 — the drive turnover.
Ravens ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. In Bengals territory, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.8% for Ravens. Our model starts at 26.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) 23-W.McGahee up the middle to CIN 22 for 2 yards (41-C.Ndukwe).
- (4:04) 7-K.Boller pass short left to 37-L.McClain to CIN 17 for 5 yards (59-L.Johnson; 94-D.Peko).
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass incomplete short middle to 87-D.Williams (58-C.Miller). {Knocked down at the line of scrimmage}
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass short right to 85-D.Mason pushed ob at CIN 3 for 14 yards (22-J.Joseph).
- (3:11) 23-W.McGahee right guard to CIN 2 for 1 yard (59-L.Johnson; 28-D.Jackson).
- (2:29) 7-K.Boller pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Darling (28-D.Jackson).
- (2:23) 23-W.McGahee right tackle to CIN 1 for 1 yard (29-L.Hall).
- (1:49) 23-W.McGahee left guard to CIN 2 for 4 yards (55-A.Brooks).
- (1:24) 7-K.Boller pass incomplete short right to 37-L.McClain.
- (1:19) 7-K.Boller pass short middle intended for 86-T.Heap INTERCEPTED by 96-M.Myers at CIN -2. Touchback. {Pass deflected by Heap (BAL#86), then off L.Johnson (CIN#59), then was caught by M.Myers (CIN#96)}
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+3.03 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +3.03 pts |
| Curl route | +1.29 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.97 pts |
| Play action | +0.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Deep post | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| End-around | -1.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.01 pts |
| Spike it | -2.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.