Falcons vs Jaguars — Week 2, 2007
The Falcons took over trailing 13-7 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 7, Jaguars 13. Jaguars won 13-7 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 28, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Falcons. Our model starts at 16.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 13-J.Harrington pass incomplete short right to 28-W.Dunn (54-M.Peterson).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 28-W.Dunn up the middle to ATL 35 for 2 yards (54-M.Peterson).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 13-J.Harrington sacked at ATL 22 for -3 yards (57-B.Hawkins).
- (1:54) 9-M.Koenen punts 42 yards to JAX 36, Center-47-B.Stutz, fair catch by 86-D.Northcutt.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.78 pts |
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| QB keep | +0.67 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.74 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.15 pts |
| End-around | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Spike it | -1.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.