Buccaneers vs Saints — Week 13, 2007
The Buccaneers took over trailing 21-20 with 3:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 27, Saints 23. Buccaneers won 27-23 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 2, 3:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.7% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 43.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) 12-L.McCown pass short right to 19-I.Hilliard pushed ob at TB 7 for 5 yards (34-M.McKenzie).
- (3:52) 12-L.McCown sacked in End Zone for -7 yards, SAFETY (91-W.Smith).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.58 pts |
| QB keep | -1.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.80 pts |
| Outside run | -1.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.94 pts |
| Inside run | -2.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.51 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.99 pts |
| Deep post | -4.01 pts |
| End-around | -4.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.