Bills vs Commanders — Week 13, 2007
The Bills took over trailing 16-14 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Bills 17, Commanders 16. Bills won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.5% for Bills. Our model starts at 41.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) 22-F.Jackson left guard to BUF 32 for 2 yards (93-P.Daniels, 37-R.Doughty).
- (4:07) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete short right to 22-F.Jackson.
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete short right to 22-F.Jackson (27-F.Smoot).
- (3:54) 8-B.Moorman punts 42 yards to WAS 26, Center-72-R.Neill, downed by BUF-17-J.Jenkins.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.50 pts |
| Deep post | -1.61 pts |
| End-around | -2.14 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.