Packers vs Chargers — Week 3, 2007
The Packers took over trailing 21-17 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 31, Chargers 24. Packers won 31-24 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 43, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.9% for Packers. Our model starts at 28.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep right to 88-B.Franks.
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 85-G.Jennings for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.97 pts |
| Deep post | +0.90 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.22 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| End-around | -1.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.