Eagles vs Seahawks — Week 13, 2007
The Eagles took over trailing 28-24 with 4:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 24, Seahawks 28. Seahawks won 28-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 4:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.2% for Eagles. Our model starts at 32.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:20) 14-A.Feeley pass incomplete short right to 86-R.Brown (56-L.Hill).
- (4:15) 14-A.Feeley pass short right to 80-K.Curtis to PHI 48 for 8 yards (25-B.Russell).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Feeley scrambles right tackle to SEA 48 for 4 yards (25-B.Russell).
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Feeley pass incomplete short left to 80-K.Curtis.
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Feeley pass short right to 36-B.Westbrook ran ob at SEA 49 for -1 yards (51-L.Tatupu).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Feeley pass short right to 36-B.Westbrook to SEA 44 for 5 yards (23-M.Trufant).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Feeley pass incomplete short left to 80-K.Curtis (21-K.Jennings).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Deep post | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -1.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.